Modeling 2: Modeling and Simulation in History

Military strategic models and simulations have been effectively used since Count Schlieffen, Chief of the German General Staff utilized simulation and gaming to plan for the German two-front campaign during World War I. Germany again used simulation and gaming to plan the Blitzkrieg strategies of World War II. The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert McNamara used Monte Carlo gaming techniques during the Vietnam War. However, U.S. decision-makers ignored the predictions that limited bombing of North Vietnam would not be effective. The result of ignoring these predictions is now a lesson to modern military planners. The Federal Government of the United States and many other organizations have used mathematical modeling and computer simulations since the late 1950’s as aids in developing policies, conducting research and development, and engineering complex systems. Initially, when mathematical modeling was young, the computing resource costs were beyond the means of most managers and analysts. In fact, for most applications, the cost of modeling or simulating a system was greater than the cost of a bad system.