Quote from Rob Neyer, ESPN

"In business, as in baseball, the question isn't whether or not you'll jump into analytics; the question is when. Do you want to ride the analytics horse to profitability...or follow it with a shovel?"

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Modeling 4: So, What Exactly is a Model?

What is a model? It is an idealized, usually simplified, representation of something that exists in the real world, or that could exist in the real world. Models have been used throughout history as people have tried to understand, describe, and influence the environment they live in. Maps and globes depicting the earth are models. Similarly, Cesare Lombroso’s late 19th century theory of criminal anthropology was a model intent on explaining the cause of, and perhaps predicting, criminal behavior.

A good model enhances understanding, stimulates thought, and can evolve until it is no longer required or useful. Medieval Portuguese maps were considerably different from modern navigational charts. Lombroso’s criminal anthropology has been considered invalid for many years, but to many criminology students, is considered to be the foundation of positivist theory. The prominent 20th century criminological theories were stimulated by Lombroso’s model. My models merge three of these criminological theories in the tactical theft factor measurement systems to create yet a new model.

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